Pre-match Preview: Germany vs Italy

The German revolution after Euro 2000 is approaching the final stage. It is an obvious and logical response to the disastrous performance of 12 years ago, particularly as, since reunification, they have won only one major international trophy, but Germany of all countries could have been excused for keeping the faith in their trademark efficiency. After all, only two years later, long before the revitalised coaching system began to bear fruit, they reached the World Cup final.

Germany continue to tear their opposition apart: they have scored in each of their last 20 games, netting 51 goals in total, and have won 15 competitive games in succession. It is a record to catch, and will Italy be able to stand before the Germans?

Low will surely bring out the best Germany's offense

Italy is a team potentially struggled with injury problems that have just had to endure extra-time and a penalty shootout in a quarter-final against England. Reports suggest Daniele De Rossi, who has excelled at the tournament, might be fit to start, while Ignazio Abate and Giorgio Chiellini should also be available. However it seems that fatigue is creeping down Italy.  

Germany, conversely, have a wealth of options that allow them to rest players at will. Joachim changed his entire front three for the 4-2 victory over Greece, and any significant concern over Bastian Schweinsteiger’s fitness could be resolved by bringing in his Bayern Munich team-mate Toni Kroos. Mario Gotze, one of the three players in the squad that Rafael van der Vaart acknowledged as being of genuine class, has not yet managed to make it onto the field this summer. They are in prime position and they know it. “I believe we are the team you have to beat if you want to win this tournament,” Low said after easing through their quarter-final.

Yet while the recent evidence makes Low’s men clear favourites, history favours the Azzurri: Italy have never lost to Germany in a competitive game, and have claimed two wins and a draw against them in their friendly matches in the last decade. The last competitive meeting was Italy’s 2-0 win in the semi-finals of the 2006 World Cup on Germany's home ground. But it seems that tradition or history does not stand a chance at EURO 2012 as we see how France fell short to Spain despite their favorable head to head record. 

“It's the time to break that series,” forward Lukas Podolski told Bild in the build-up to the game. “Since 2006 we have improved enormously. Today we have a whole different philosophy and a different team. The Italians also know that. One thing is clear – we want to be in the final, so we have to beat the Italians.”

To do so they will have to break another series: under Cesare Prandelli, Italy have not yet lost a competitive game.

Key battle: Bastian Schweinsteiger v Andrea Pirlo.

Schweinsteiger was far from his best in the 4-2 victory over Greece and has recently suffered from injury problems, but he has declared himself fit to face Italy and, given his undoubted quality and ability to lead, it would be a significant surprise if he were not in the starting line-up. He will come up against Pirlo, who has a phenomenal ability for controlling the game. Ahead of the tournament, Spain legend Luis Suarez had suggested he was a finer player than Xavi, and his magisterial showing against England, capped with a Panenka penalty in the shootout, showed what's he capable of. If Germany can shut down Pirlo, they should win the game. 

Stats: Italy have scored only four goals at Euro 2012 – the least of any semi-finalist since the tournament was expanded to include a quarter-final stage at Euro 96.

Prediction: Germany is clearly the favorite to win EURO 2012, let alone this match. Schweinsteiger at hist best will be able to somehow nullify Pirlo, and do not forget that Germany has a very powerful midfield rather than Schweinsteiger. Fatigue could pose a threat to Italy's ability to withstand Germans attack. Our prediction for this match: 1-0 for Germany. 

Betting Tips: Germany (-) 0.5 Asian Handicap will be the pick of the day. Check out other odds and markets at M88 Sports Betting